Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are going to be a tough 1-2 combination to beat in a short series. Jules Posner: Although the emotional appeal of Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina in their potential last playoff appearance together is a great story, that story may end early. I like a play on the Phillies to upset St. #MLB 9 INNINGS 18 COMBINATION CARDS SERIES#Louis, but this is likely considered the Cardinals’ biggest edge in the series and may be being exaggerated.Ī price of +115 is putting a ton of weight on the Cardinals holding home field advantage in this series - likely too much. I would not try to argue the Phillies actually hold a bullpen edge over St. Since September the Phillies have hit to a team wRC+ of 104 compared to the Cardinals’ 98, which has come with Bryce Harper playing far below his top level.Īnd beyond that, Philadelphia’s traditionally poor bullpen has solidified since the start of September, pitching to an xFIP of 3.75 compared to the Cardinals’ 4.23. Therefore it’s easy to make the case that although the Cards won 93 games, these teams actually achieved fairly even.īeyond that, a three-game wild card series sets up more favorably for the Phillies, who have three-rock solid starting options in Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Ranger Suarez in Game 3 if it gets there.Ĭompare that to the Cardinals staff and Philly holds a starting pitching edge for the series. And that’s all while playing in the NL East, which cumulatively posted 36 more wins than the depleted NL Central. Nicholas Martin: Since Rob Thomson took over as manager, the Phillies have played to a record of 64-44, which was a better winning percentage than the Cardinals posted during that span. I will take anything plus-money on the Phillies. It’s close to a coin flip series because of the Cardinals potential game three advantage. #MLB 9 INNINGS 18 COMBINATION CARDS FULL#The divisions are a combined 1-10 in wild card games and full playoff series.ġ1 years after the Cardinals knocked the Phillies out of the 2011 MLB playoffs, the Phillies get revenge and win this series. Since 2019, only one central division team has won a series in the MLB playoffs. 500 in games not against NL Central opponents. There’s also the schedule strength reality of the Cardinals metrics. But as of now, Philadelphia will have clear advantages in the first two games against a Cardinals lineup that will be in its worse offensive split against right-handed pitching. Philadelphia has no more than three or four reliable relievers and the Cardinals’ advantage in this series comes from its starting pitching and bullpen depth. Realmuto is elite at taking away the running game and neutralizing some of the Cardinals’ team speed. Nola pitched to a 2.36 ERA in September and October. Since returning from the injured list, Wheeler has pitched 15 innings with 15 strikeouts, one walk and one run allowed in three starts. But in a shorter series, Philadelphia is as dangerous as any team in the entire sport because of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. #MLB 9 INNINGS 18 COMBINATION CARDS PLUS#At plus money, they’re an auto play and I would even consider adding some 2-0 sweep at +290.Īnthony Dabbundo: The Phillies are a flawed baseball team as you go further down the roster and can expose their lacking bullpen and starting rotation depth. They don’t strike out much and are very disciplined at the plate, doing most of their damage by getting on base for their superstar duo.Īnd if that’s not enough for you, over the last 30 days, the Phillies bullpen is 11th in xFIP while St. Louis is down at 18th.Īside from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, the offense is not a huge threat. Over the last 30 days, the Phillies rank seventh in wRC+ while St. Flaherty has made just nine starts, but has a 3.86 ERA since the All-Star break while Mikolas’ ERA has skyrocketed nearly two runs compared to his dominant first half.Īside from pitching, the Phillies offense fares better, too. Louis starter (3.11 ERA) but he has some alarming metrics as well (.258 xBA. 419 and he ranks in the bottom 1 percent of all pitchers in whiff rate. Still, his 圎RA is nearly a run higher than his ERA at 4.52, his xSLG is up to. Negative regression was inevitable for Wainwright, who has just one start since September with fewer than four earned runs. They’ll likely match up with a combination of Jose Quintana, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty. Wheeler returned from injury two weeks ago and has given up just one run over 15 innings since, while Nola has a 2.36 ERA from September on. Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola are as good a 1-2 punch in baseball as anyone, and Ranger Suarez has quietly been solid (3.77 圎RA, 34.9% hard hit rate) behind the duo. Let’s start with the biggest edge in this series: starting pitching. Louis, but that’s about the only negative I foresee. Charlie DiSturco: The Philadelphia Phillies have the disadvantage of playing the Wild Card series in St.
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